The World Bank has cut its 2024 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 3%, down from 3.4%, citing the impact of Sudan’s civil war. Despite the drop, the region is still expected to grow more than last year’s 2.4%, thanks to increased consumer and business spending, according to the “Africa’s Pulse” report.
Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief Africa economist, noted that while the recovery is slow, inflation is easing in many countries, potentially allowing governments to lower interest rates. However, conflicts and natural disasters continue to threaten growth. Without Sudan’s war, regional growth could have been 0.5% higher next year.
South Africa is projected to grow by 1.1% this year, rising to 1.6% by 2025. Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow 3.3% in 2024, increasing to 3.6% by 2025, while Kenya is forecast to expand by 5%.
Sub-Saharan Africa experienced strong growth between 2000 and 2014, averaging 5.3%, but this momentum slowed after the fall in commodity prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. High debt burdens across the region are limiting investment, with Dabalen warning that insufficient investment could worsen poverty and hinder recovery. Countries like Kenya, facing violent protests over higher taxes, struggle with rising debt from borrowing at high interest rates.
